At Acxiom, we’ve recently been considering a straightforward question: Will generative engine optimization (GEO) replace paid media? Sean Muzzy, Acxiom’s president, says the answer hinges on understanding how people actually behave. And that understanding reveals something counterintuitive.
Over the past two decades, marketers have largely optimized around one objective: driving people to websites. Generative AI is changing that.
As people increasingly receive answers directly from AI assistants instead of clicking through search results, the role of the open web is evolving. The question is no longer whether AI will change search. It has already. The more important question is whether that shift will eclipse or eliminate paid media.
Our view is that it won’t.
We believe generative engine optimization, or GEO, will fundamentally change how people discover and evaluate information. At the same time, it will increase the strategic importance of the channels that create attention, trust and demand.
Discovery is moving upstream
Historically, search has served as the bridge between consumer intent and brand engagement. Increasingly, AI is becoming that bridge.
Research from Pew found that users clicked a traditional search result during only 8% of visits when a Google AI summary appeared, compared with 15% when no AI summary was present. This suggests that AI-generated answers are allowing more searches to be resolved directly in the AI experience rather than sending users to the open web.
Traditional publishers are already experiencing pressure. The Wall Street Journal reported year-over-year traffic declines of 18% for USA Today and approximately 31% for both CNN and Business Insider amid the growth of AI-generated answers and changes in search referral patterns.
AI platforms are also beginning to integrate advertising into their environments. This is an important signal. GEO is not necessarily eliminating paid media. It’s creating new surfaces where paid media can appear in AI-mediated experiences.
It also illustrates how the economics of discovery may shift. The website becomes less central as a destination for every informational interaction and increasingly valuable as an authoritative source of content, product information and knowledge that AI systems can interpret and recommend. There may also be a need to establish your brand as the authoritative source for people who will adopt a ‘trust but verify’ approach to AI-generated information – ensuring that, as AI systems recommend, your content and voice are recognized as credible and primary.
Attention still belongs to people
While discovery is shifting, attention hasn’t disappeared.
People continue to spend meaningful time watching video, engaging with creators, participating in social communities, gaming, streaming content and shopping across retail media environments. These are precisely where you will focus your attention and resources to reach your prospects and customers in the near future.
These are where brands will create emotional connection, cultural relevance and demand. AI can help people evaluate choices and summarize information, but it will not replace the human experiences that shape preference and inspire action.
The investment trends reflect this. The IAB projects that US digital video advertising will exceed $80bn in 2026, with digital video continuing to grow faster than the overall advertising market.
In this environment, paid media remains relevant. Its role evolves.
Media becomes less focused on generating a click and more focused on earning attention, creating influence and establishing the signals that shape both consumer choice and AI-generated recommendations. This shift also demands a recalibration of media placement strategy. Rather than relying primarily on programmatic approaches that drove traditional site engagement, brands need to shift paid media investment toward where people actually spend time – video, creators, social, streaming, retail media and commerce – where cultural relevance, creator partnerships and retail ecosystems increasingly shape both consumer behavior and the signals that inform AI recommendations.
Identity becomes more valuable
The most significant implication may not be GEO itself. It may be the growing importance of identity.
As anonymous website traffic becomes less reliable, brands will need stronger first-party customer relationships built on consent, transparency and a clear value exchange. Identity becomes the connective layer across an increasingly fragmented customer journey – transforming isolated touchpoints into a unified customer experience.
To do this effectively, you must integrate the channels identified above – video, creators, social, streaming, retail media and commerce – into a cohesive identity strategy. This allows you to recognize and reach known prospects and customers consistently across all these touchpoints, creating continuity rather than fragmentation.
Isolated channel optimization won’t cut it. Marketers must connect interactions across AI assistants, CTV, retail media, creators, social, web, commerce and physical touchpoints into a unified customer view. This enables something more valuable than personalization. It enables relevance.
People increasingly expect brands to understand context, recognize preferences and deliver consistent experiences whenever and wherever engagement occurs. Generative AI raises that expectation further because people become accustomed to interfaces that understand intent rather than simply respond to clicks.
Identity-driven approaches allow brands to create more meaningful and authenticated content experiences grounded in consented customer data and known relationships. This also creates a more dependable foundation for AI. When content, customer intelligence, product information and permissions are connected, brands can provide AI systems with more accurate signals while maintaining appropriate governance and control.
Organizations with strong identity foundations and trusted first-party data will be better positioned to create value for people, activate media more intelligently and establish authoritative content that both people and AI can recognize.
Success will be measured differently
For years, marketers have optimized for impressions, clicks, sessions and traffic.
Those metrics become less complete when discovery increasingly happens inside AI experiences and engagement spans multiple closed and authenticated environments.
The organizations that outperform the competition will place greater emphasis on measurable business outcomes, including incrementality, customer lifetime value, attention, engagement, trust and growth.
The objective becomes creating influence, not simply generating visits.
This will require more connected measurement, stronger identity resolution and a clearer understanding of how media, content, customer experience and commerce work together to drive outcomes.
Looking ahead
We see GEO as an evolution of the marketing ecosystem, not a replacement for paid media.
AI becomes an intelligence layer for discovery and evaluation.
Paid media continues to create attention, demand and cultural relevance.
Identity connects interactions into more meaningful, consented experiences.
The brands that succeed will not optimize these capabilities independently. They will build connected systems where trusted data, identity, AI, media, creators, commerce, content and customer experience continuously reinforce one another.
For 20 years, marketers chased distribution. The next 20 will belong to those who orchestrate intelligence, identity and experience as one.